Saturday, June 23, 2012

Daniel Gulati: More Options, More Problems

An expanding class of smart, ambitious professionals have created so many options for themselves that they find it virtually impossible to do a darned thing.

Tom, a reluctant 29-year-old management consultant, has the largest career option set of anyone I know. By virtue of his experience, skills, and financial situation, he could realistically be any one of the following: a high-powered professional services partner, a full-time actor, an entrepreneur, a venture investor, or a professional hockey player. His career decision tree features a diverse set of branches, each offering its own distinct mix of financial and nonfinancial rewards. He's young, healthy, and unattached. He's been taught all his life to carefully weigh alternatives and pick the path with the highest expected utility.

But as this career Superman soars high above the professional world, his kryptonite becomes painfully obvious. With so many options in tow, there's one thing he can't do, something that an Ivy-league education didn't prepare him for and the exact thing that keeps him in a permanent state of stress and anxiety: the need to decide.

Like Tom, many of us intuitively believe in the value of options, especially when it comes to something as important as our careers. Economists explain that rational individuals assign value to leaving doors open, even when there's little likelihood of ever walking through any one particular door. Parents stressed the importance of education as a way to increase professional optionality, and blue-chip companies tout infinite exit prospects to potential employees. But after our personal decision trees grow to a certain point, is creating more branches for ourselves really better?

While writing Passion & Purpose, I had the privilege of interviewing dozens of high-performing individuals about their career options and decisions. Everyone in my sample was in their late 20s or early 30s, had attended top-tier schools, and had worked for several years in reputable companies. Financially content, they rated intellectual stimulation as the number one reason for choosing a job, and moved between jobs and countries frequently to find a fit.

The most striking finding, however, was a common reason underpinning this restlessness: the desire to defer. Convincing themselves they had yet to find a true calling, they relentlessly pursued careers that increased their future options. They were betting that the pain of creating more options now would pay off in the pleasure of a better life later.

These potential superstars belong to the Hesitation Generation, an expanding class of talented individuals who inadvertently are training themselves to be systematically indecisive. As this group grows, they reassure each other of the need for versatility and flexibility in a rapidly changing world.

But a relentless quest to accumulate more options might be sabotaging your career and harming your well-being. Here's why:

Generating options can quickly become an end in itself. Instead of accepting that option value has diminishing returns, many individuals toiled away at roles in professional services firms, corporations, and the public sector with a large (and understandable) focus on increasing the career options that would await them upon their resignation. By their second or third job, however, many had fallen into the dangerous habit of making decisions solely to increase the number of options available to them. This was all at the opportunity cost of creating real value and pursuing their passions.

More options make it harder to choose. Rather than closing the very doors that they'd dedicated their lives to prying open, many found it easier to simply defer making career decisions altogether. There's a definitive (and definitional) problem here: Deferring a decision means you haven't made one. Thus, some of the most talented individuals in the world find themselves stuck in an unending holding pattern, a professional gray zone housing those who have the most options of all and have failed to convert any of them for fear of missing out on all the others.

The choice you make is unsatisfying. Ironically, those with more options tended to feel less satisfied with the path they were currently pursuing, irrespective of what it was. Like Barry Schwartz's The Paradox of Choice predicts, these individuals are faced with a feeling of learned helplessness caused by a seemingly infinite list of choices to optimize. Our ever-increasing use of social media compounds these feelings by making comparisons more rampant and convenient, and leaving us endlessly second-guessing the choices we've actually made, knowing more are out there.

In a world where deciding is difficult, we have to choose: Dedicate our energy to building a large but ultimately meaningless set of potential paths, or move forward on our convictions with gusto? Those who pick the latter have the opportunity to break important new career ground.

Are you accumulating career options at the expense of following your true passions? What can you teach others about avoiding hesitation and making decisions?

This post was originally published on HBR.org.

For more by Daniel Gulati, click here.

For more on success and motivation, click here.

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Follow Daniel Gulati on Twitter: www.twitter.com/danielgulati

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Gamecocks, going 3rd title in row, face Arizona

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) ? Arizona came to the College World Series as one of the hottest teams in the nation and swept three straight games to reach the championship round.

Yet coach Andy Lopez and his players know few outside their fan base are paying much attention to them as the best-of-three series starts Sunday.

That's because South Carolina (49-18) has completed an improbable run to the finals, where it will try to become the first team in 40 years to win a third straight title.

"We're just excited to be invited to the Ray Tanner Invitational," Lopez said Saturday.

At that, Tanner, the Gamecocks' 16th-year coach, playfully punched Lopez to open their pre-finals news conference.

"We've got a pretty good team," Tanner said, "but we're not the '27 Yankees. We've had 28 one-run games. We know that every at-bat is crucial for us.

"We've got the chance to play in the finals a third time in a row. It's hard to wrap your arms around that. You just have to have some good luck and fortune along the way, a couple clutch performances along the way."

Sophomore right-hander Konner Wade (10-3), who threw a complete-game five-hit shutout against UCLA last Sunday, will be the Game 1 starter for Arizona (46-17).

The Gamecocks will send Forrest Koumas (2-2) to the mound against an Arizona team that is fourth in the nation in batting (.330) and sixth in scoring (7.4 runs a game).

"Most of the time I'll get a guy or two that kind of gets to me and says I really want the ball," Tanner said with a smile. "But since they've watched these guys hit, I'm not getting those guys. They're avoiding me. All the pitchers are going in a different direction."

Few would have expected the Gamecocks to even return to Omaha this year after they had to replace five regulars in the lineup from the team that beat Florida in the 2011 finals. They had to develop chemistry in an infield that had three new faces and bounce back from losses in five of their first six Southeastern Conference games.

At the CWS, their streak of 22 straight wins in NCAA tournament games ended with a 2-1 loss to Arkansas last Monday. They staved off elimination three times thanks to stellar pitching. They beat Kent State once and the Razorbacks twice in a span of 36 hours because of a Wednesday rainout.

"The whole story of a three-peat, as a fan I definitely would be rooting for that because that's an unbelievable feat," Arizona right fielder Robert Refsnyder said. "The weird, quirky fan who wants to see Arizona win, I'll take that fan."

The last program to show as much dominance as the Gamecocks was Southern California, which won five straight championships from 1970-74.

The difference is that the Gamecocks have had to deal with scholarship limits and bat standards that have reduced offense and created unprecedented parity in the college game. They also have had to survive the night-in, night-out battles in the SEC, the nation's most powerful baseball conference. The SEC has had a team in the finals five straight years.

Tanner said the Gamecocks have had sustained success because they don't dwell on accomplishments.

"You really can't allow yourself to go there," Tanner said. "You just try to play the next game."

For all the roster turnover, the Gamecocks have found stability in their pitching staff.

Michael Roth, a senior left-hander, has a 1.34 career ERA in the CWS. He has allowed eight runs and 31 hits in a CWS career-record 53 2-3 innings. Seven of his nine appearances in Omaha have been starts, tied for the most ever.

Roth is 4-0 in CWS games, and two of his three complete games in Omaha have come in elimination games. The most recent complete came in a two-hitter against Kent State on Thursday.

Junior lefty Tyler Webb and closer Matt Price also have pitched three straight years in the CWS. Those two combined for seven shutout innings against Arkansas on Friday, with Price closing the game for his CWS-record fifth career win in Omaha.

"The first opening ceremonies for the College World Series, they tell you it's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity," Roth said. "I was blowing all my meal money thinking I'm never going to get back here. There is no way we would have thought we would be here three years in a row."

Arizona has won nine straight games, including all eight in the NCAA tournament. The Wildcats beat Florida State, UCLA and the Seminoles again to reach the finals. They'll be playing for their fourth national title, but first since 1986.

Lopez won a national title at Pepperdine in 1992 and brought Florida to the CWS in 1996 and '98. He's back in Omaha in his eighth season at Arizona.

The Wildcats have been building for this season since 2010, when Lopez signed one of the nation's top freshman classes.

Center fielder Joey Rickard, shortstop Alex Mejia, third baseman Seth Mejias-Brean and Refsnyder were all drafted in the top nine rounds this year. They led the Wildcats to some of the best offensive numbers in the nation and a Pac-12 co-championship.

The pitching staff is led by the durable and dependable Kurt Heyer (13-1). The junior leads the nation in wins, and his 154 2-3 innings are the most by a Division I pitcher since 2006.

Wade, Heyer and No. 3 starter James Farris are counted on to log lots of innings for Lopez, who is hesitant to turn to an inexperienced bullpen.

The Wildcats have just 22 home runs, but they hit into gaps, move runners over and score in bunches. Seven starters are batting .324 or higher, and the team has won 16 of 18 since dropping a series at Oregon that put its hopes of hosting a regional in jeopardy.

"As the year goes on you have to learn how to win," Mejia said. "You can't get caught up in the emotions if you lose a game. We've done a real good job of that."

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Friday, June 22, 2012

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William Bradley: A Rugged Time for Obama's Big Geopolitical Pivot

"Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in again."

-Michael Corleone, The Godfather, Part III

America under Barack Obama has begun the big geopolitical pivot from its fateful over-engagement with the Islamic world of the Middle East and Central Asia to greater engagement with Asia and the Pacific. But this week showed that the transition is going to be anything but smooth.

Obama is trying to wind down the Afghan War after unwisely winding it up in 2009. Rival Mitt Romney wants to stick around. But we're going to be disengaging, one way or the other, either with a certain degree of decorum or on the run, as events this week made plain, yet again.

While the Pakistan part of our flailing AfPak strategy accelerated its devolution, matters in the Middle East deteriorated further. The Egyptian revolution that so excited humanists in America and the West has been overwhelmed by counter-revolution, while Syria slid further from ceasefire into chaos and the Iranian nuclear crisis worsened.

Pakistan, that supposed lynchpin of U.S. strategy in the Afghan War when Obama escalated it in 2009, becomes still more problematic.

Pakistan was thrown into a new political crisis after the country's supreme court pushed the prime minister, who has clashed sharply with the military, out of his job. Three judges disqualified Yusuf Raza Gilani, who was jailed for corruption during the Musharraf regime, from holding office and ordered the president to choose a new prime minister. The court ruled Gilani could not continue, after he was found guilty of contempt in April.

Then the nominee to replace Gilani as prime minister, Makhdoom Shahabuddin, who has held several cabinet portfolios, suddenly became the subject of an arrest warrant. The judge on Thursday cited Makhdoom Shahabuddin's alleged role in a scandal involving the import of a drug that can be used to make methamphetamine. Finally, Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, the former water and power minister and a longtime ally of President Asif Ali Zardari, was confirmed Friday by parliament as the new prime minister.

U.S.-Pakistani relations, which dropped to a new low after the Osama bin Laden raid, really plummeted in November after U.S. helicopters killed 24 Pakistani soldiers at an outpost on the Afghan border. The big Afghan War supply route through Pakistan was closed and remains closed.

Putting things in perspective, the prime minister forced from office this week was relatively pro-U.S.

There were reports early in the week that former Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak had died. But that turned out not to be accurate. His heart apparently stopped, but was revived. He remains in grave condition.

As does the state of Egypt's nascent democracy.

Dr. Mohamed Morsi, an alumnus of the University of Southern California and candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood, has claimed victory in last weekend's presidential run-off election over retired Air Force General Ahmed Shafiq, Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister, and news reports have validated the former California State University engineering professor's claim.

But between the country's Supreme Court, dominated by Mubarak appointees, and the ruling "interim" military council, the first democratically elected national parliament in decades has been dismissed and most all major decision-making power pertaining to fiscal matters, defense, and the development of a new constitution has been moved away from the presidency to the military council.

The official vote count was due on Thursday. Now the official vote won't be released until this coming Sunday, if then.

Syria is an even bigger shambles.

The UN has halted its peacekeeping mission in Syria. Things simply became far too violent during the ceasefire, with the lives of the UN monitors under threat along with everyone else in rebellious areas.

Then there is the big wild card, Iran. And Israel's reaction to Iran.

In Moscow this week, everyone showed up on Monday and Tuesday for the latest round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent UN Security Council members: U.S., UK, France, Russia, and China, plus Germany). But as I expected, the talks went nowhere.

Iran is hurting from major sanctions, with more kicking in. But Iran refused attempts to limit its nuclear enrichment activities, and still hasn't come through on a supposed agreement earlier this spring to allow UN inspectors into facilities from which they have long been blocked.

And the U.S. and its European allies have refused to pull back on sanctions in exchange for any give on the Iranian side.

Which leaves Iran continuing to move forward on its hotly disputed nuclear program and Israel that much closer to being forced to decide whether or not to follow through on its threatened strikes against the Iranian program.

The Iranians say that Israel and the U.S. are behind cyber-attacks against their nuclear program. But let's assume that those won't suffice to alter the Netanyahu administration's agenda.

So, does all this stop Obama from his planned geopolitical pivot? Will he, and we, be dragged back into the pit of the past decade's mostly disastrous involvements, i.e., Iraq War, Afghan War, much too heavy bootprint in the Islamic world?

What's particularly interesting in looking at this arc of crisis in the Middle East and Central Asia is, frankly, how little we can do about it. Which means that the answer, despite all the shouting and the usual nasty back and forth that transfixes the media culture so as it animates our dysfunctional political culture, is largely no.

Whether Romney and other reflexive warhawks like it or not, we are not going to win the Afghan War. The allies are heading for the exits and America has turned against it. We're not going to be big shot callers in Pakistan, either.

U.S. policy benefited from Hosni Mubarak's dictatorship in Egypt, and some variant of that may be re-established. But even if it is, it would hardly be stable and there's little the US can do to make it so in the aftermath of the Arab Awakening. And trying to would be disastrous for the U.S. in the Arab world.

We've never been shot callers in Syria and that's unlikely to change, especially with Russia actively supporting the Assad regime, its decades-long ally.

The big imponderable is Iran, and Israel, whose current leaders call an Iranian nuke an existential threat. A war with Iran could upset any number of apple carts, including the entire shaky global economic recovery, such as it is.

That's the big wild card with regard to the big geopolitical pivot. The rise of China as a nascent superpower, and the rise of Asia as a whole, including Iran, shifts the world's economic and political center of gravity such that the pivot makes more than enough sense, whether the Democrats or Republicans are in power.

In fact, I think the pivot to the Pacific would already have occurred had not taken place. After all, the first major geopolitical crisis of the Bush/Cheney administration took place there.

People forget that we had a big confrontation with China early in the Bush/Cheney time, five months before 9/11. The Hainan Island incident, in which a U.S. spy plane collided with a Chinese fighter jet, which in turn forced a crash landing and the internment of the American crew of 24, was potentially explosive.

It was only 9/11 that provided the basis for the spurious pretexts under which the disastrous '90s neocon dream of invading Iraq, which has had the effect of empowering Iran, could be carried out.


You can check things during the day on my site New West Notes.

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